Between the Lines
"There's a bunch of trucking companies right now that are trying to find drivers, legally compliant drivers, because of the ones that have been pushed out. There are cabs that are sitting empty." That quote from AscendTMS CEO Tim Higham captures the month in one breath [FreightWaves]. Driver pay just posted its biggest two-month jump on record, spot rates topped contract for the first time since 2022, and LTL carriers are absorbing overflow from a truckload market that's finally tight again [FreightWaves][DC Velocity]. Inside: what's real, what's fragile, and what to watch.
The freight market has turned. Capacity, not demand, is doing the heavy lifting.
The Truck Driver Pay Index jumped from 150.83 in April to 170.04 in June, a 13.5% surge in two months and easily the largest short-window gain since the index began in 2020 [FreightWaves]. Superior Trucking Payroll's Mike Ritzema said he's never seen driver wages move like this. It aligns with spot rates that have finally punched through contract levels for the first time in more than three years, and with flatbed hitting an all-time high in June [DC Velocity].
But peel back the numbers and the story isn't a demand boom. DAT analyst Dean Croke put it bluntly: "If demand were driving this, volumes would be climbing too, and they're not" [DC Velocity]. FTR's Trucking Conditions Index hit a record 20.4 in May, yet FTR's Avery Vise warned the rebound is "principally a function of already-tight capacity followed by a series of disruptions," not broad-based freight growth [DC Velocity].
"If demand were driving this, volumes would be climbing too, and they're not." Dean Croke, DAT Freight & Analytics
What's tightening capacity? Enforcement. The Trump administration's crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs, tougher English-language proficiency checks, and the shuttering of some driving schools have quietly pulled thousands of drivers off the road [DC Velocity]. Estes Express President Webb Estes called it a "double whammy": fewer drivers now, and fewer schools to replenish the ranks later [Transport Topics]. Meanwhile bankruptcies keep grinding through the small-carrier tier, with nine more transportation and logistics firms filing over two weeks in July [FreightWaves].
LTL is riding the wave. ArcBest saw weight-per-shipment jump 5% between April and May; Saia pushed through a 7.1% general rate increase in July; and FedEx Freight, newly spun off as a standalone public company, is chasing food and beverage, healthcare, and SMB freight it has historically underserved [Transport Topics]. Amazon formally entered LTL in June, though with a notably asset-light footprint of under 100 cross-docks versus roughly 300 for the top five incumbents [Transport Topics].
The takeaway for operators: pricing power is real, but it's built on a thin foundation. If enforcement eases or freight volumes stall, the capacity story gets a lot less compelling. For now, though, carriers with drivers in seats are finally getting paid what the work is worth.
The Supreme Court just changed broker liability, and the AI question got harder
After the unanimous Montgomery ruling on broker negligent selection, C.H. Robinson's very public AI push is drawing pointed questions about whether that same investment is flowing into carrier vetting [FreightWaves]. Transportation attorney Cassandra Gaines framed it sharply: "AI agents without context aren't worthwhile," and brokers can't credibly automate pricing and tracking while leaving safety vetting on autopilot. Expect plaintiff attorneys to make exactly that argument.
Hormuz toll plan sends shockwaves through global shipping
President Trump announced the U.S. will reinstate its Iranian blockade and charge 20% of cargo value for Strait of Hormuz transits, a fee that could add roughly $10,000 per container on a typical box valued at $50,000 [The Loadstar]. Brent crude jumped past $86, oil prices climbed for a second straight day, and DP World is fast-tracking a new UAE terminal at Fujairah specifically to bypass the strait [Transport Topics][FreightWaves]. Fuel volatility is back on the table.
$62 million in federal grants target truck parking
USDOT's latest BUILD grant round included $62 million for truck parking projects across Kentucky, Wyoming, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Illinois. Kentucky alone gets $25 million to add spaces at seven rest areas on four major corridors [FreightWaves]. It's a modest slice of the $1.73 billion package, but a rare federal acknowledgment of a problem drivers have been raising for years.
EPA moves to kill DEF derates
EPA proposed eliminating engine derates triggered by diesel exhaust fluid system issues, replacing them with dashboard alerts [Transport Topics]. ATA's Patrick Kelly welcomed the flexibility, noting derates can strand trucks, though truck-stop and fuel-marketer groups pushed back, warning it could undermine one of trucking's clearest emissions success stories. Cummins, Paccar, and Daimler are already rolling out related software updates covering millions of engines.
Illinois contractor case goes class action
A federal judge granted class-action status to a Fair Labor Standards Act suit against Illinois carrier Risinger Brothers Transfer, potentially sweeping in lease-purchase, owner-operator, team, and brokerage drivers alleging they were misclassified as contractors [FreightWaves]. The core claim, that deductions drove effective pay below minimum wage, is familiar territory. What's new is the class certification, which raises the stakes for any carrier running a lease-purchase model.
Gordie Howe Bridge finally opens July 27
After a six-week delay over toll revenue-sharing, the U.S. and Canada agreed to open the new Detroit-Windsor crossing on July 27 [Supply Chain Dive]. The Canadian Trucking Alliance expects immediate efficiency gains on the busiest commercial trade corridor between the two countries, with modern customs facilities and direct freeway-to-freeway connections reducing congestion at the aging Ambassador Bridge.
Will driver pay keep climbing into fall?
Superior's Ritzema notes a four-to-six-month lag between spot rate moves and driver wages, meaning the recent rate surge should continue pushing pay higher into Q3 and Q4 [FreightWaves]. If enforcement-driven capacity tightness holds, carriers should plan compensation reviews and recruiting budgets around materially higher wage baselines than they modeled six months ago.
Peak season inventory pull-forward is already underway
The Logistics Managers Index hit 71.1 in June, its second-highest reading since March 2022, driven by retailers stockpiling ahead of potential tariff escalations later in July [DC Velocity]. GEP's June data shows manufacturer safety-stock building at levels last seen in early 2023. Expect compressed peak-season timing and heavier August through September volumes for final-mile fleets.
FedEx Freight and Amazon reshape the LTL competitive map
A newly independent FedEx Freight is publicly targeting SMB, food and beverage, healthcare, and data center freight, segments where CEO John Smith admits penetration is minimal or "basically zero" [Transport Topics]. Amazon's asset-light LTL entrance adds a second wild card. Watch for pricing pressure in specific verticals even as headline GRIs continue climbing.
This month's freight strength is real but structurally fragile, built on enforcement-driven capacity cuts rather than shipper demand. For carriers and final-mile operators, the window is open to lock in rate discipline, invest in driver pay, and tighten the safety and vetting practices the courts are now scrutinizing. The operators who use this stretch to build durable capability, not just ride the cycle, will be the ones still standing when the next turn comes.
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